• Mac Jones over 3,250 passing yards: The Pats' 2022 season — coordinated by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia — was the anomaly. With a new coordinator and better scheme, Jones should place himself in more favorable positions to succeed and see a bump in his efficiency.

• Aaron Rodgers under 3,950 passing yards: The Jets defense projects as one of the best in the NFL, and Rodgers seems unlikely to find himself in many game scripts that will force him to air it out.

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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Best over bets

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: Over 3,800 passing yards (FanDuel)

• Geno Smith enjoyed a breakout season in 2022, throwing for nearly 4,300 yards in his first season as the Seahawks starter. And while this breakout happened in Smith's thirties, little about his underlying play would suggest he’s due for the regression his market price indicates.

• One of Smith’s best attributes as a passer has been his ability to find the open receiver and deliver the ball accurately, both of which are very stable metrics year over year.

• And with the addition of first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the continued development of second-year offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, Smith should have plenty of open receivers to throw to and more time to sit in the pocket in 2023.

• With the deep receiving group and developing tackle play, Smith should have the ingredients to build on his NFL-best 99.2 deep-passing grade from last year, which would also help him rack up the yards.

• There may be a concern that the Seahawks are a traditionally run-heavy team and Smith won’t accumulate enough volume to accrue the passing yards, but there’s nothing in the data to suggest the Seahawks will play a run-heavy style of football. They ranked eighth in the NFL in pass rate over expected last year, they let running back Rashaad Penny walk in free agency this offseason and they used a first-round pick on a star wide receiver — all of which suggests a further lean into the passing game.

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Mac Jones, New England Patriots: Over 3,250 passing yards (BetMGM)

• It feels like it's been years since Mac Jones‘ terrific rookie season, which saw him rack up 3,801 passing yards and earn a 78.9 PFF grade that ranked 12th among NFL quarterbacks.

• This is to say that perhaps the 2021 season is not the aberration. Instead, maybe the 2022 season — coordinated by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia — was the anomaly.

• One of Jones’ best attributes is finding the open receiver and delivering the ball accurately. In 2021, Jones saw the ninth-most open routes per dropback despite a weak receiving corps. In 2022, that number dipped to the sixth-worst in the NFL.

• Despite seeing fewer available open routes, Jones hit an open man more often in 2022 than in 2021, suggesting an improvement in NFL-level recognition and execution. With a new coordinator and better scheme, Jones should place himself in more favorable positions to succeed and see a bump in his efficiency.

• It would be unlikely for Jones to hit a ceiling year and finish near the top of the leaderboards, but the stable floor from these passes to open receivers should be more than enough to push him over 3,275 yards, the sixth-lowest mark on the board.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 3,875 passing yards (FanDuel)

• Using similar logic to our Calvin Ridley bet from earlier this offseason, we can also bet on Trevor Lawrence and his continued emergence in 2023 after he threw for 4,113 yards in his sophomore season.

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