• Amon-Ra St. Brown over 950 receiving yards: St. Brown was absolutely dominant in his alpha role with the Lions last year. He got open with regularity and produced against both man and zone coverage.

• Davante Adams under 1,325.5 receiving yards: The star wideout spent most of last year as the lone healthy target, but this year the team has Hunter Renfrow at full health, and they also signed Jakobi Meyers to a huge deal this offseason.

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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Best over bets

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: Over 950 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)

• Some bets require you to hold your nose as you sweat out a play that has value but feels a bit icky (like betting against the Chiefs). But the bets that offer value on great players performing well is an entirely different story.

• St. Brown was absolutely dominant in his alpha role with the Lions last year. He got open with regularity and produced against both man and zone coverage.

• Perhaps most importantly for our purposes — in betting a volume stat— St. Brown was targeted on nearly 30% of his routes, the second-best rate in the NFL last year. Target rate is one of the most stable stats for the wide receiver position. He should accumulate plenty of volume to push him over this prop.

• Further bolstering St-Brown’s case is that the Lions will be without their top target earners from last year, as both D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson have moved to new teams. And with Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games of the campaign, the Lions did little to add replacements to take targets away from the Sun God.

• Look for PFF’s second-highest graded wide receiver from 2022 to continue his dominance and maintain his spot in the top right of the above chart as he flies past the 950-yard mark.

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Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers Over 750 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)

• While average depth of target (aDOT) and yards after the catch (YAC) are generally inversely related, Watson is one of the few players in the NFL who maintains elite marks in YAC per reception and aDOT.

• To pair with his high aDOT, Watson caught 75% of his contested targets, the best mark in the NFL. Put simply, Watson can beat you for big chunks in multiple ways, either through deep passes or through turning routine catches into huge plays with yards after the catch.

• There is a clear case for yardage efficiency, but will he have the volume on his side?

• After emerging as a full-time player in Week 10, Watson was the clear alpha on the Packers offense. He was targeted once every four routes, the 12th-highest rate in the NFL from Week 10 to the end of the season.

• Additionally, the sophomore's main target competition from last year — only Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard played enough to even qualify for this graph — are no longer with the team.

• Even with some question marks with Jordan Love at quarterback, Watson presents immense upside from both an efficiency and volume standpoint. And if he’s healthy and gets even 65% of his production from last year as a full-time player, he should easily clear his 750-yard mark.

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Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars Over 825 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)

• It’s been almost two years since Calvin Ridley played an NFL game. So yes, there may be some rust to shake off, but it also means Ridley has some of the freshest legs in the NFL.

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