The 2023 NFL Draft is only two days away, and now that the Aaron Rodgers trade has finally been made official, the draft order is now likely set.
We will no doubt see our fair share of trades during the draft, but as of now, each team’s draft capital is fixed, as pre-draft trades usually don’t happen this close to the event.
According to the PFF draft value chart — which uses drafts from 2006 through 2019 to estimate the number of wins a player selected at a given pick will add to his new team through his rookie contract — here is how the NFL's 32 teams stack up in terms of draft capital heading into Thursday night:
The teams are sorted by their overall draft capital, but the bars are also divided into individual picks so you can see the value of every selection. The first and most valuable pick is shown on the very left, and the last pick is on the right.
The teams at the bottom recently traded for players and hope to reap the benefits of their moves next season. The Miami Dolphins hope to find the needed stability and health at quarterback to maximize their investment in Tyreek Hill, while defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will try to make the investment in Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey worthwhile.
Sean Payton will try to salvage Russell Wilson’s career in Denver, and the 49ers will hope to get the most out of Christian McCaffrey and maybe get something in return for the disaster that was the move-up to select Trey Lance.
The Houston Texans lead the way in draft capital for two reasons: First of all, they finished the 2022 season with the second-worst record in football, securing the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. Additionally, they also got the Browns’ first-round pick, the 12th overall selection — thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade.
In total, the Texans will be on the clock five times within the first 73 picks.
Other teams at the top also benefited from trading players in exchange for future draft capital — the Seattle Seahawks received the fifth overall pick from Denver, and the Detroit Lions received the No. 6 overall pick from the Los Angeles Rams.
And speaking of future draft capital, the Chicago Bears rank only sixth in terms of draft capital for the upcoming draft, but they have already gained additional draft capital for next year. They are not the only team to do so, however, 18 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft have already changed hands.
Furthermore, a lot of teams have already added to their 2024 capital thanks to compensatory picks through last month’s free agency. For this reason, we will use the chance to look ahead to next year, look at every team’s future draft capital and come up with a draft capital ranking for the next two drafts.
Naturally, next year’s draft capital greatly depends on each team’s result in the upcoming season. We already simulated the 2023 NFL season for another article and will use the same method to simulate it again. The simulation is based on current betting market win totals for each team, and since they’ve changed just a bit over the last month, here are the updated implied team strengths from the betting market:
With the help of these team ratings, we can simulate the season and consequently simulate each team’s draft position in the 2024 NFL Draft. For example, this is the distribution of the pick the Bears get from the Carolina Panthers next year.
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