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Fantasy Football: Breakout quarterbacks for 2023

2K0W5GB Landover, United States. 11th Sep, 2022. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) is jubilant after the offense scores a touchdown during NFL game between the Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders on Sept. 11, 2022 at FedEx Field in Landover, MD. The Commanders defeated the Jaguars 28-22. (Max Siker/Image of Sport) Photo via Credit: Newscom/Alamy Live News

  • Trevor Lawrence was among the league’s best quarterbacks late last season: He was grading similarly to Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over the second half of 2022.
  • You can mitigate the risks of the breakout quarterbacks: There are roughly 15 quarterbacks who have a strong case to be fantasy starters this season. If you draft a risky one, you can also pick another.
  • Check out breakouts at other positions: You can find breakouts at running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

These breakout players are those who have an ADP between 48 and 120  on ESPN who I have ranked notably higher than their ADP, and they have a good chance of producing the best season of their career. For help on draft strategy, rankings or for more details about other players, check out the rest of my summer content below. For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.

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Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Friday, August 18

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 73.5, From ESPN)

Lawrence looks to build on a strong end to his 2022 season.

  • Lawrence was the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft but had a disappointing first season with Urban Meyer as his coach.
  • Jacksonville changed head coaches to Doug Pederson and added receivers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram.
  • It took some time for Lawrence to adjust to the new offense. His 58.9 PFF offensive grade of 58.9 from 2021 to Week 8 of 2022 was 58.9. That was third-lowest among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 snaps in that time. No one lower than his mark is still an NFL starter.
  • He rebounded in a major way over the second half of the season. His 90.3 grade from Week 9 on was the second-best for quarterbacks with at least 300 snaps, just behind Joe Burrow and just ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
  • He averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game since Week 9, which ranked sixth among quarterbacks.
  • Expectations are even higher for him in 2023 as he gains a new top wide receiver in Calvin Ridley
  • Ridley missed all of 2022 due to suspension and most of 2021, but he achieved an 84.9 PFF grade in 2020.
  • While Lawrence isn’t known for his rushing, he ran the ball 54 times last season (ignoring kneel-downs), which ranked ninth among quarterbacks. He was also top-10 in rushing yards and fifth in rushing touchdowns at five. He should have just enough fantasy production to be among the top quarterbacks.
  • If he improves how everyone expects, he can easily be a top-five fantasy quarterback this season. Even if he remains the same, he is a relatively safe bet to finish in the top 10. 

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