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    建银国际:宏观周报:科技类贸易如期回暖,欧美央行预计按兵不动

    来源:CCB · 建银国际 2019-12-09 09:42:06

    要点: 政治局提用好逆周期调节,坚持以改革开放应对外部压力。中共中央政治上周五召开会议,分析研究2020年经济工作。周期性政策方面,会议强调要提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性,运用好逆周期调节工具,并提到要加强基础设

      外汇天眼APP讯 : 要点: 政治局提用好逆周期调节,坚持以改革开放应对外部压力。中共中央政治上周五召开会议,分析研究2020年经济工作。周期性政策方面,会议强调要提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性,运用好逆周期调节工具,并提到要加强基础设施建设,注解2020年政策支持稳增长力度将会提升,以包管全面建成小康社会任务圆满收官。结构性政策方面,会议强调要把外部压力转化为深化改革和扩大开放的动力,建设高水平开放型经济新体制,改革、开放涌现的频次增多。此外,政治局已连续第二年在年度经济工作会议上不提房地产,近期可重点关注中央经济工作会议的具体表述。

      美国就业数据大超预期,消费有望继续支持美国经济。据彭博社报导,中美已就取消关税数额接近杀青一致,有望在新一期关税威胁[1]生效前(即本周日)杀青第一阶段协议。此外,新华社报中国正展开对美国大豆和猪肉的关税排除工作,美国总统特朗普也一改口径,表示中美谈判进展良好。数据方面,美国制造业、非制造业ISM双双不及预期走弱,而非农就业人数远超预期,工资增速和失业率也好于预期。数据虽好坏各半,但受贸易协议消息提振,市场避险情绪有所缓和,美国10年期国债利率升至1.83%。

      11月科技类贸易回暖,总进口强势回弹。11月出口数据不及预期,对美出口跌幅扩大,抢出口效应并不明显。而进口增速则受益于去年底基数,增速结束下跌转正。分类别看,出口受劳动力密集型行业(家具服装等)拖累下滑,而科技供给链贸易明显转好,电子用品出口和半导体元件进口跌幅缩窄(图1),与我们预期全球科技硬件周期回暖带动中国贸易向好的判断一致。详细分析请见我们发表的《2020年宏观展望:贸易战乌云稍散,经济再现曙光》。

      猪价环比涨幅缩窄,CPI春节前预计继续冲高。猪价在11月末回落,而平均零售价格环比上涨12%,较10月19%收窄。整体食品价格11月继续上行,预计推动CPI同比升破4.5%。猪周期还未结束:近期农户由于担心疫情再爆发加紧出栏,这个短期因素影响过后,我们预计猪价将继续波动上行,CPI同比冲高走势将延续至春节。工业生产价格方面,能源价格虽随国际原油价格回落,但国内金属价格走高。我们预计PPI能维持环比小幅正增长,同比降幅收窄。

      逆周期调节虽加大,控风险基调不改,信贷增速仍预计小幅走缓。11月人民银行小幅调降OMO利率,但信贷政策方面基调未见明显转向,总体仍以防范化解金融风险为主旋律。央行领导表示,金融系统的防控风险任务具体包含继续拆解影子银行、遏制房地产泡沫化倾向以及主动配合地方政府整顿隐性债务。月中的座谈会上,央行表示社会融资规模增速与GDP增速基本匹配并略高一些,注解对信贷近期小幅走弱的容忍度较高(图2)。数据方面,我们预计银行新增贷款11月季节性回弹,存量增速在控风险压力下小幅放缓。此外,企颐魅债发行强劲,地方专项债无新增。预期社会融资总额11月将回升至1.5万亿左右,增速则由10月的10.7%微降至10.6%。

      预计美联储、欧央行12月按兵不动。美联储、欧央行本周相继召开议息会。我们与市场预期一致,认为两大央行不会有进一步政策调剂动作,且明年上半年也不会进一步降息。但若本周日美国按原计划对中国进口产品加征关税,有可能引致市场避险情绪攀升,金融状况收紧,市场对美联储在明年一季度(1月29日、3月18日)再次降息的预期将回升。

      [1] 美国原定于12月15日(下周日)对华加征的新一期关税,涵盖包含电子产品、玩具、服装等大量消费品。若此次关税开征,对中美经济增速的直接影响较小,在0.1-0.2个百分点左右。

      英文申报如下:

      China tech trade improved as expected; global central banks expected to hold

      This weeks highlight

      · Politburo meeting stressed counter-cyclical measures; reiterated reforms and opening-up amid external pressure

      The Chinese Politburo held a meeting on Friday to discuss economic strategies for 2020. On the cyclical front, the meeting mentioned to make macro policies more forward-looking, targeted and effective, by utilizing counter-cyclical tools and enhancing infrastructure investments. This indicates supportive policies will likely be stepped up to support economic growth next year. On the structural front, the meeting reiterated reforms and opening-up amid external pressures, and to build an economy with a high-level of openness. The frequency of mentioning reforms and opening-up has increased markedly from last year. Notably, the Politburo skipped discussions on the property market for the second consecutive year at this annual meeting. Property sector-related policy indications could be included in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference.

      · US job market data well above expectations; consumption expected to support overall growth

      Bloomberg reported that China and the US are closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs to be rolled back, while US negotiators are reportedly positive about a deal before the next tariff threat to take effect on 15 Dec (next Sun). Meanwhile, Xinhua reported that China is working on the tariff exclusions for US soybeans and pork. US President Trump also switched to a more constructive tone, saying the talks with China are progressing well. On the data front, US recorded weaker manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in Nov, while non-farm payrolls well-exceeded consensus expectations and unemployment rate as well as wage growth both came in firmer than expected. Despite the mixed data, market risk sentiment has recovered on the positive trade news. US 10-year treasury yield picked up to 1.83%.

      · Chinas tech trade improved and imports rebounded strongly in Nov

      China‘s export growth came in weaker-than-expected in Nov, with shipments to the US recording a bigger drop. Advanced shipments ahead of the US holiday shopping season were not obvious in the data. In contrast, import growth turned positive in Nov, in part thanks to the low base last year. By category, the weakening in exports was mainly due to labor-intensive export industries, such as apparel and furniture, while the tech supply chain trade firmed up notably as semiconductor imports and consumer IT hardware exports bounced back. This is in-line with our view that the warming global tech cycle will drive improvement in China’s trade outlook in the near-term. Please see more detailed analysis in our Macro Outlook 2020: Pulling through the fog of the trade war.

      Whats next?

      · CPI expected to surge further before the Chinese New Year holiday

      Pork prices dropped at the end of Nov. Average monthly pork prices recorded a narrower gain of 12% MoM in Nov from 19% MoM in Oct. Overall food prices continued to increase in Nov, which we expect will push up CPI to over 4.5% YoY. Looking ahead, the pork cycle has not yet peaked. The recent correction in prices was driven by a pick-up of pigs sent for slaughter, as farmers were concerned about the spreading African swine flu. After this transitory factor fades out, we expect pork prices to continue their uptrend, driving CPI inflation to firm up till the Chinese New Year holidays (late Jan). Meanwhile, domestic energy prices eased with global crude oil prices falling, but metal prices increased. We expect PPI to maintain a small sequential gain, and its annual decline to narrow.

      · Credit growth to moderate as risk controls remain a policy focu

      The PBoC lowered key OMO rates in Nov by a small amount in Nov, but its overall policy stance did not shift dramatically, with a focus on risk controls. The PBoC leadership said that the risk control tasks will include continued shadow banking deleveraging, preventing a housing bubble and addressing local government implicit debt. The PBoC Governor Yi also said in mid-Nov that total social financing (TSF) growth is largely in line and slightly above GDP growth, showing high tolerance for the recent slowdown in credit growth . On the data side, we expect new yuan loans to rebound in Nov, with its outstanding growth to edge down under risk management pressure. Corporate bond issuances accelerated in Nov, but there was no new issuance of special local government bonds. We expect TSF growth to recover to RMB1.5t in Nov, and its growth to slow slightly from 10.7% in Oct to 10.6% in Nov.

      · ECB, Fed to hold policies unchanged

      The Fed and ECB will hold policy meetings next week. We are in-line with the market view that the two central banks will leave their policies unchanged in Dec and at least through 1H20. However, if the US implements its scheduled tariff hike next Sun, an increase of market risk aversion will likely tighten financial conditions. In this scenario, the expectation of an additional Fed rate cut in 1Q (FOMC dates 29 Jan, 18 Mar) will increase again.

      近期申报一览:

      12月 2日 :

      宏观周报:PMI反弹超预期,市场静待关税决定

      11月25日 :

      宏观周报:中美谈判再添变数,市场防御情绪升温

      11月18日 :

      宏观周报:经济前景预期改善

      11月11日 : 宏观周报

      - 货币宽松缓步慢行

      11月04日 : 宏观周报

      - 中美贸易谈判进展积极,美联储预计暂停降息

      10月28日 : 宏观周报

      - 预计10月制造业PMI续升,联储继续降息

      10月21日 : 宏观周报

      - 9月中国经济如期反弹,四季度增长有望低位企稳

     

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